OddSonar · Magazine
Odds, measured.
Guides to markets and competitions, the arithmetic of odds, the method behind the register, and responsible gambling. The entries below are still being written, non pezzi già pubblicati: le stiamo scrivendo e compariranno qui man mano.
Due bookmaker, la stessa partita, due prezzi. Non è un errore: è aritmetica. Dentro ogni quota c'è una probabilità implicita e un margine — e imparare a leggerli è il primo passo per capire cosa si sta guardando davvero.
Un mercato alla volta: cosa copre, quando si chiude, come si legge la sua quota.
The 2.5-goal line is football's most common reference. What counts as a goal, when the market settles, and why the half unit makes a draw impossible.
In preparazione
1X, X2, 12: three combinations covering two outcomes out of three. How the Double Chance price is built from the 1X2, and how to compare the two markets.
In preparazione
From -0.5 to -1.75: what the Asian handicap lines mean, when a bet is refunded, and how it differs from the European handicap.
In preparazione
Formati, calendari e dinamiche dei tornei: il contesto che le quote riflettono.
Twenty clubs, 38 matchdays, three relegations and the international breaks. How the league is built, and the points in the calendar where prices move most.
In preparazione
Thirty-six teams, eight matches each, one table. How to read the format, and why the calendar weighs on rotation.
In preparazione
Three matches in seven days change the line-ups, and line-ups change prices. What to watch when a team plays in Europe mid-week.
In preparazione
L'aritmetica della quota: numeri che si possono verificare, non opinioni.
It takes one division: 1 divided by the price. What that number really says, why a market's outcomes add up to more than 100%, and how to normalise them before comparing.
Leggi →
The margin is the distance between published odds and real probabilities. How to work it out in three steps, and why it varies by league, market and operator.
Leggi →
From 1.20 to 10.00: converting decimal odds into implied probability, with the table ready made and the sum to do it yourself.
Leggi →
Tracciare è l'unico modo per sapere, invece di ricordare.
Date, market, price taken, closing price, result: the minimum fields of a log worth keeping, and the commonest mistakes people make when they start tracking.
In preparazione
CLV compares the price you took with the one the market closed at. Why it is the most reliable measure of your judgement, long before the balance is.
In preparazione
Yield measures return per unit staked; variance explains why, over few bets, it says almost nothing. How many observations you actually need.
In preparazione
Definizioni brevi, fonti normative, zero opinioni.
From outright to void, by way of bankroll, lay and listing: the essential entries in definitions of a few lines, in alphabetical order.
In preparazione
Closing a bet before the final whistle: how the amount is worked out, when it isn't available, and what ADM-licensed operators' terms actually say.
In preparazione
Italy's Customs and Monopolies Agency licenses operators and defines what may be offered. How to check a licence, and why it matters.
In preparazione
Il limite non è un disclaimer: è parte del metodo.
Every ADM-licensed account offers limits you can set yourself. Where to find them, how to size them against your budget, and why to set them before rather than after.
In preparazione
Temporary or indefinite, valid across every Italian-licensed operator at once: how to request it, how long it lasts, and what happens when it expires.
In preparazione
After five reds, red is not «due». What the hot-hand bias is, how chasing losses shows up, and which signals to look for in your log.
In preparazione
OddSonar Magazine publishes explanatory content for people who already bet. No tips, no invitations to gamble. Gambling is for adults only and can be addictive.