OddSonar · Magazine
Odds, measured.
Guides to markets and competitions, the arithmetic of odds, the method behind the register, and responsible gambling.
The twenty squads are worth €6.08 billion by Transfermarkt's estimates, and Inter almost nine times Lecce. After seven matchdays the table looks little like that order; over the last 13 seasons, by the end, the most valuable starting XI won the title 9 of 13 times.
The round ahead, read with our own numbers: table, form, head-to-heads and margins. No tips.
Ten matches, Barcelona on 27 points before facing Real Madrid, and median margins from 4.82% to 7%: every fixture in numbers, with the limits of the head-to-head records.
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Ten matches from 23 to 25 October: Manchester City on 21 points, Brighton on 23 goals and margins compared, with head-to-head records that also include the Championship.
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Ten matches from 23 to 25 October: Inter and Lazio on 19 points, Roma with 3 goals conceded, and margins compared operator by operator.
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From 23 to 27 October, 17 matches: Palermo on 19 points, Ascoli with 5 goals conceded and margins compared across the available coverage.
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Nine matches from 23 to 25 October: five sides on 14 points, Paris Saint-Germain against Lyon and Monaco against Lille, and margins with differing coverage.
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Nine matches from 23 to 25 October: Bayern and Dortmund on 14 points, Gladbach still on zero, and comparable margins across eight fixtures.
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Austin hosts the eighteenth of twenty-three Grands Prix: Antonelli leads Russell by 102 points, and after Sunday 125 will be left to play for. On the race-winner market the margin is 20.46%.
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One market at a time: what it covers, when it closes, how to read its price.
It wins on 0, 1 or 2 total goals, and it came in on 49.1% of the 254,498 matches in our archive. How often that happens league by league — and why a thirty-year average is the wrong number to look at.
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1X, X2, 12: three combinations covering two outcomes out of three. How often they actually land across five leagues, how to derive the fair price from the 1X2 — and why 12 is the steadiest of them all.
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Whole, half and quarter lines: what they mean, when a bet is refunded, and why a −0.75 splits your stake in two. With the caveat that this market isn't in our listing.
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BTTS wins if both sides find the net: it has happened in 51.82% of the matches in our archive. The frequency league by league, where this market parts from Under/Over, and what it costs today.
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Formats, calendars and how tournaments work: the context the odds reflect.
Three matches in seven days should change everything. We looked for the effect in the archive three ways: the first finds nothing, the second finds the opposite, the third explains why.
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Twenty teams, 38 rounds. What our data says about the Italian league: 42.6% home wins, 2.73 goals a game, and a margin roughly a third below the average listing.
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Thirty-six teams, one table, eight matches each against eight different opponents. What changes compared with groups, and why on matchday one almost no data is usable.
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Last matchday on 8 November, back on the 20th and 21st. The dates for every league and cup, Italy's two games, and how many Nations League matches fill the window.
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Play resumes on 9 October in Spain, Germany and France, on the 10th in Italy and England. The dates one by one, and what is left in the listing across the 18 days without league football.
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The arithmetic of a price: numbers you can check, not opinions.
It takes one division: 1 divided by the price. What that number really says, why a market's outcomes add up to more than 100%, and how to normalise them before comparing.
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The margin is the distance between published odds and real probabilities. How to work it out in three steps, and why it varies by league, market and operator.
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From 1.20 to 10.00: converting decimal odds into implied probability, with the table ready made and the sum to do it yourself.
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On the winner of the Indonesian Grand Prix the margin is 40.0%: almost double Formula 1 and more than six times Serie A. In Moto2 and Moto3 it goes higher still.
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On the winner of the Singapore Grand Prix the margin is 21.0%, more than three times the Serie A one. And almost all of it sits on the top eight drivers, not on the outsiders.
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The same operator holds back 5.70% in the Premier League, 10.59% in Ligue 1 and 9.88% across its whole listing. The league you pick matters more than the bookmaker you pick.
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Across 12,459 matches in the five big leagues, backing every outcome priced between 5 and 10 lost 13.3% of the stake; below odds of 1.50, 1.7%. The margin does not weigh the same on every price.
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In running the price is rebuilt at every event, and not every book publishes one: mid-match the gap between two operators measures not the price but the distance from one left standing at kick-off.
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Recording is the only way to know instead of remember.
With a true 2% yield at odds of 2.00 you need 9,600 bets before it separates from zero. After 100, the margin of error is ±19.6%: almost everything you see is still noise.
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Eight fields are enough. The reason you need them isn't bookkeeping: without the number of bets and the odds, a balance can't tell you whether you're doing well or sitting inside a run.
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Comparing the price you took with the closing price answers sooner than return does. Across six weeks one operator's 1X2 margin moved 3.5 points: prices move, and by how much can be measured.
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Short definitions, the rules they come from, no opinions.
Closing a bet before the end, collecting less than the potential return. How the offered amount is built, why it carries an extra margin, and when it isn't available.
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Italy's Customs and Monopolies Agency authorises who may take bets in the country. How to check a site holds a licence, and which protections exist only inside the authorised perimeter.
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From antepost to yield, by way of margin, line, refund and closing line value: the essential entries in one-line definitions, each pointing to where we explain it in full.
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The limit isn't a disclaimer: it is part of the method.
After three wins a side wins 56% of the time, against a 37% average: it looks like proof that streaks are real. We redid the sum properly, and almost all of that gap disappears.
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Italian licensed betting accounts include player-set limits. Where to find them, how to size them against a real budget, and why they have to be set beforehand rather than after.
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It doesn't exclude you from one site: it excludes you from every Italian-licensed operator at once. How to request it, what changes between temporary and indefinite, and what it doesn't cover.
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The round they cover has been played: the odds are gone, the measured numbers are not.
The 18 matches on 22 October: Brighton and Trabzonspor on 4 goals, Atalanta on 3 points and margins with different coverage. Form covers only the opener; head-to-head records are missing.
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The 18 matches on 22 October: Juventus and Besiktas on 7 goals, defences yet to concede and operator margins with different coverage.
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Eighteen matches on 20 and 21 October: PSG and Barcelona meet on 6 points, Arsenal have yet to concede, and comparing margins requires attention to coverage.
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Ten matches from 16 to 18 October: Mantova and Palermo meet at the top, Sudtirol have conceded 3 goals, and head-to-head records need careful attention to dates and competitions.
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Nine matches from 16 to 18 October: Monaco on 14 points, Brest and Stade Rennais on 12 goals, margins compared and incomplete head-to-head coverage.
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Nine matches from 16 to 18 October: Freiburg and Dortmund on 13 points, Bayern on 16 goals and comparable margins across eight fixtures.
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Barcelona, on 24 points, visit third-placed Betis on 19: ten matches through attacks, defences and head-to-head records in context, with each operator's margins.
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Ten matches from 17 to 19 October: City lead on 18 points, Brighton have scored 18 goals, and operator margins are compared. Fulham-Hull's archived meetings come from the cup and Championship.
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Ten matches from 16 to 19 October: Inter and Lazio on 16 points, Roma and Cagliari with 3 goals conceded, and margins compared across operators.
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18 matches on 15 October: just one fixture with a past meeting in the archive, no standings or recent form yet, and margins to be read with an eye on who prices what.
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The 18 matches on 15 October: Juventus have 5 goals, form covers just one game, and margins are comparable across a shared sample of 13 fixtures.
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Eighteen matches on 13 and 14 October: PSG have scored 6 goals, form covers just one match, and some head-to-heads come from the Europa League. The margin comparison also shows match coverage.
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Ten matches from 9 to 11 October: Palermo on 13 points, three attacks with 10 goals and margins to compare with operator coverage in mind.
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Ten matches from 10 to 12 October, as the league resumes after the break: how much each operator holds back, three sides level on 13 points, and head-to-heads that aren't always Serie A.
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How much each operator holds back on every match, what the head-to-head records actually cover — and why today's table won't be Friday's.
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Ten matches from 10 to 12 October, as the league resumes after the break: how much each operator holds back, Liverpool-Manchester City, and head-to-heads that sometimes come from another era.
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Two sides have yet to score, on three fixtures the archive's head-to-heads are too old to say anything, and on one match two operators hold back exactly the same.
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Ten matches as the league resumes after the break: how much each operator holds back, a Barcelona side with a perfect record, and head-to-heads the archive doesn't have in three cases.
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On this round a single operator publishes a price, so the comparison between books cannot be made. Barcelona are scoring 4.2 goals a game, Valencia have scored one in five rounds.
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Nine matches from 9 to 11 October, as the league resumes after the break: how much each operator holds back, Monaco alone at the top, PSG sixth and Marseille second from bottom.
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It is the league where the three operators sit furthest apart of any we measure: on one match there are 6.69 margin points between dearest and cheapest.
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Nine matches from 9 to 11 October, as the league resumes after the break: Dortmund with a perfect record, Mönchengladbach on zero, and four matches the archive can say nothing about, for different reasons.
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Three rounds played and already two sides on zero points. And on four of the nine matches not all three operators publish a price, so the comparison is thinner than it looks.
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Eighteen matches and no table, no form, no head-to-heads: on matchday one they don't exist. What does exist are the prices — and they show something you don't see in domestic leagues.
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OddSonar Magazine publishes explanatory content for people who already bet. No tips, no invitations to gamble. Gambling is for adults only and can be addictive.