Odds & Margins
MotoGP, how much the bookmaker keeps: the Indonesian Grand Prix measured
On the winner of the Indonesian Grand Prix the margin is 40.0%: almost double Formula 1 and more than six times Serie A. In Moto2 and Moto3 it goes higher still.
Published 10 October 2026
On the «winner» market of the MotoGP race at the Indonesian Grand Prix, Sunday 11 October at 9:00 Italian time, Betsson keeps 40.0%. On the winner of the Singapore Formula 1 Grand Prix, the same day, the same operator keeps 21.0%; on the full-time result of this weekend's Serie A matches, at the median, 6.43%.
No predictions and no odds in the text: here we measure the price of the market, not who will win.
The measurement
| Market | Outcomes | Sum of implied probabilities | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| MotoGP, race winner | 22 | 140.0% | 40.0% |
| Moto2, race winner | 28 | 143.6% | 43.6% |
| Moto3, race winner | 26 | 143.2% | 43.2% |
| Formula 1 Singapore, race winner | 22 | 121.0% | 21.0% |
| Serie A, 1X2 full-time result (median, 10 matches) | 3 | 106.4% | 6.43% |
Betsson odds read on 10 October 2026 at 17:23, Italian time, after the sprint and qualifying at Mandalika; Formula 1 is the 17:03 reading of the same day, Serie A the one of 9 October at 14:48. All from the same operator.
More riders, more margin — but not only that
Part of the gap comes from the number of outcomes: every extra rider is one more price on which the bookmaker can keep something. But that is not the whole story. MotoGP and Formula 1 have the same number of outcomes here, twenty-two, and the MotoGP margin is almost double.
Where the margin sits
In the Formula 1 piece we saw that almost all the margin sits on the names at the top of the list. In MotoGP that is still true, but less so: the top eight riders add up to 134.7 points of implied probability, the other fourteen to 5.4. In Formula 1 the last fourteen were worth 1.7.
In Moto2 and Moto3 the tail weighs more: the names beyond eighth contribute 14.6 points in Moto2 and 14.3 in Moto3. These are the classes with the longest lists, and the long tail carries its share of the margin.
Why there is no comparison here
Of the feeds we read, only Betsson prices motorsport: the number says what this market costs at this operator, not what MotoGP costs in general. And a single reading stays a single reading: prices keep moving until the start. To know whether 40.0% is typical the measurement has to be repeated over the next Grands Prix, in Australia on 25 October and in Malaysia on 1 November.
How we calculated it
For each rider we turn the odds into an implied probability (1 divided by the odds) and add up the values of all the outcomes in the market. Only one outcome is paid, so everything above 100% is margin.
The same measurement on Formula 1, in Singapore: Formula 1, how much the bookmaker keeps: the Singapore Grand Prix measured
The margin calculation in full, on football: What the bookmaker's margin is, and how to measure it on a 1X2