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How Double Chance works: what it covers compared with the 1X2
1X, X2, 12: three combinations covering two outcomes out of three. How often they actually land across five leagues, how to derive the fair price from the 1X2 — and why 12 is the steadiest of them all.
Pubblicato il 14 settembre 2026
Double Chance covers two of a match's three outcomes. «1X» wins if the home side wins or draws; «X2» if it draws or the away side wins; «12» if either side wins, meaning it doesn't end level. In exchange for a higher probability, the odd is lower.
It isn't a new market: it is the 1X2 added up in pairs. And that means its fair price can be calculated without waiting for anyone to publish it.
How often they actually land
Arithmetic first, reality second. Here is how often the three simple outcomes and the three combinations came up, across every match our archive holds for five leagues.
| Competition | Matches | 1 | X | 2 | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 4,970 | 42.6% | 25.7% | 31.7% | 68.3% | 74.3% | 57.4% |
| Premier League | 13,196 | 45.6% | 25.7% | 28.7% | 71.3% | 74.3% | 54.4% |
| La Liga | 4,981 | 46.0% | 25.5% | 28.5% | 71.5% | 74.5% | 54.0% |
| Bundesliga | 4,914 | 44.7% | 24.4% | 30.9% | 69.1% | 75.6% | 55.3% |
| Ligue 1 | 3,958 | 43.8% | 25.4% | 30.7% | 69.3% | 74.6% | 56.2% |
openfootball archive (CC0), 260,125 distinct matches, attributed by country rather than by name — «Serie A» and «Premier League» exist on other continents too.
12 is football's steadiest combination
Looking at the table, one column behaves differently from the others. 12 sits between 74.3% and 75.6% in all five leagues: a range of 1.3 points. 1X runs from 68.3% to 71.5% and X2 from 54.0% to 57.4%, swinging about twice as much.
The reason is that 12 is the only one that doesn't depend on who is at home: it simply means «it doesn't end level». And the share of draws varies little from league to league — between 24.4% and 25.7% across five different leagues, thousands of matches each.
1X and X2, by contrast, contain home advantage, and home advantage changes from one country to another. Measured as the gap between home and away wins, it is 10.9 points in Serie A (42.6% against 31.7%) and 17.5 in LaLiga (46.0% against 28.5%).
How to derive the fair price from the 1X2
If you know the three 1X2 odds, a Double Chance's fair price takes two steps. First: turn the odds into implied probabilities, which is 1 divided by the odd. Second: add the two you want, and take 1 divided by that sum.
On a 1X2 priced 2.00 / 3.40 / 4.00: the implied probabilities are 50%, 29.4% and 25%. For 1X you add the first two, 79.4%, and the fair price is 1 divided by 0.794, which is 1.26. For 12: 50% + 25% = 75%, so 1.33. For X2: 29.4% + 25% = 54.4%, so 1.84.
⚠ Those prices already contain the margin of the original 1X2, so they aren't «fair» in the strict sense: they are what the operator ought to offer to be consistent with its own prices. If the Double Chance you find is lower, on that market it is holding back more than on the 1X2.
It is the simplest way to see what a convenience costs: Double Chance isn't a different market, it is the same market bundled, and the bundle has a price.
What we can't tell you
⚠ Double Chance isn't among the markets our feeds publish: the listing carries full-time result, Under/Over, Both Teams to Score, Draw No Bet, Odd/Even and first half. So we can't compare operators on this market, and we won't pretend we can.
What we can give you is every operator's 1X2, up to date, with which the sum above takes ten seconds. The comparison is on the odds page.
From the feed, right now
A close relative we do measure: Draw No Bet, where the draw is refunded. Here is how much each operator holds back:
The feeds are unreachable right now. We'd rather not show you a number that isn't the current one.
Three things to keep in mind
- A higher probability isn't an advantage: it is already in the price. 12 lands about three times out of four, and the price that corresponds to it is low accordingly.
- The draw is the steadiest outcome across leagues, but not across matches: in a very lopsided fixture the probability of a draw collapses, and the whole structure changes with it.
- ⚠ Comparing an operator's Double Chance with its own 1X2 tells you whether that bundle costs more. It doesn't tell you whether it's worth playing: that is a different question, and not one we answer.