MotoGP, the Malaysian Grand Prix in numbers: Márquez and Martín 10 points apart, and what the bookmaker keeps

On Sunday 1 November at 8:00 Italian time the Malaysian Grand Prix is held at Sepang; the sprint is on Saturday 31 October at the same time. It is the nineteenth of the calendar's twenty-two Grands Prix. We read it through three measurements — the standings and the points still available, the season so far, and what the bookmaker keeps on the race winner. No predictions and no odds in the text.

The standings and the points left

Riders' standings after the Phillip Island sprint. The Australian race on 25 October was cancelled: the official source marks it as such, and the standings include only the points from the sprint the day before.

Including Malaysia, four Grands Prix remain, all with a sprint: 25 points for winning the race and 12 for winning the sprint, so 148 for a rider who won them all. The seven riders in the table are still in it on arithmetic; Alex Márquez, eighth on 181 points, is already out, 184 behind his brother. After Saturday's sprint the points available drop to 136, after Sunday's race to 111.

This is a condition, not a prediction: after Sunday, a rider more than 111 points behind can no longer catch the leader. Today Fernández is 129 behind and Di Giannantonio 113: to stay under that line they need to outscore Márquez over the weekend by at least 18 and 2 points.

The season so far

Eighteen sprints and seventeen races: the difference is Australia. Eight different riders have won at least one race — Márquez 6, Bezzecchi 5, and one each for Martín, Acosta, Ogura, Di Giannantonio, Fernández and Alex Márquez.

The top two got there in different ways. Márquez has won 6 races and 9 of the 18 sprints; Martín a single race and 4 sprints, and sits 10 points behind him. By manufacturer the season is level: 8 races to Ducati, 8 to Aprilia, counting Ogura's and Fernández's Trackhouse bikes, and one to KTM.

What the bookmaker keeps

On the MotoGP race-winner market Betsson keeps 43.2%, across 21 riders; on the sprint winner, 42.72%. In Indonesia, three weeks ago, the same measurement on the race gave 40.0%. For comparison, on the winner of the same weekend's Formula 1 Grand Prix the same operator keeps 21.56%: half as much.

The first eight names on the list add up to 130.48 points of implied probability, the other thirteen 12.72. In Indonesia the last fourteen were worth 5.4: this time the tail weighs more than twice as much. In Moto2 and Moto3 the margin rises further, to 46.53% across 28 riders and 45.14% across 25.

Betsson odds read on 30 October 2026 at 19:26 Italian time, two days before the race: prices keep moving until the start. Of the feeds we read, only Betsson prices motorsport, so there is no comparison between operators here.

How we calculated it

Standings, wins and cancelled sessions come from the official MotoGP results. For the margin we turn each price into an implied probability (1 divided by the odds) and add them up: only one outcome is paid in the winner market, so whatever exceeds 100% is margin.

The same measurement in Indonesia, with Moto2 and Moto3: MotoGP, how much the bookmaker keeps: the Indonesian Grand Prix measured

The same weekend in Formula 1, where Antonelli can clinch the title: Formula 1, the Mexico City Grand Prix in numbers: Antonelli can clinch the title, and what the bookmaker keeps