Formula 1, the Mexico City Grand Prix in numbers: Antonelli can clinch the title, and what the bookmaker keeps

On Sunday 1 November at 21:00 Italian time the Mexico City Grand Prix is held, the nineteenth of the season's twenty-three; qualifying is on Saturday at 22:00. It is the first Grand Prix at which Kimi Antonelli can win the title on arithmetic. We read it through three measurements — the standings and the points still available, the season so far, and what the bookmaker keeps on the race winner. No predictions and no odds in the text.

The standings and the points left

Drivers' standings after the United States Grand Prix, won by Antonelli from pole. Including Mexico, five Grands Prix remain: 125 points for a driver who won them all, so Verstappen and Leclerc, 129 and 132 behind, are already out. Russell and Hamilton are still in it. After Sunday the points available drop to 100.

What Antonelli needs on Sunday

This is a condition, not a prediction. If after the race Antonelli leads a chaser by more than 100 points, that chaser can no longer catch him. With exactly 100 the chaser could at most draw level, by winning all four remaining races; and on equal points the title goes to the driver with more wins. Antonelli has 9, Russell could reach 8 at most, Hamilton 6: on Sunday night a lead of 100 is enough.

In finishing positions, Antonelli is champion on Sunday in every case but two: if Russell wins and Antonelli finishes tenth or lower; if Hamilton wins and Antonelli scores no points. The count holds for today's calendar, which lists no sprints in the five remaining Grands Prix, and for the rules that since 2025 no longer award a point for the fastest lap.

The season so far

Eighteen races run, six different winners. Antonelli has won 9 and stood on the podium 15 times; Russell has 3 wins, Norris and Verstappen 2, Hamilton and Leclerc one. Mercedes has won 12 races out of 18 and leads the constructors' championship with 607 points, 133 more than Ferrari.

13 of 18 races were won from pole, Austin included. Antonelli has started from pole 7 times, Russell 5.

What the bookmaker keeps

On the race-winner market Betsson keeps 21.56%, across 22 drivers. In Austin the same measurement gave 20.46%, in Singapore 21.0%: three readings, all between 20 and 22%.

As in the two previous races, the margin sits at the top of the list: the first eight add up to 118.16 points of implied probability, the other fourteen together 3.4.

Betsson odds read on 30 October 2026 at 19:29 Italian time, before qualifying: prices keep moving until the start, and they move more after Saturday's qualifying. Of the feeds we read, only Betsson prices motorsport, so there is no comparison between operators here.

How we calculated it

Standings, results and starting positions come from OpenF1; the starting position is the race grid. This time the past editions of the Mexico City Grand Prix are missing: during the weekend's sessions OpenF1 closes its archive to non-subscribers, and we could not read them. For the margin we turn each price into an implied probability (1 divided by the odds) and add them up: only one outcome is paid in the winner market, so whatever exceeds 100% is margin.

The previous Grand Prix, in Austin, when 150 points were still available: Formula 1, the United States Grand Prix in numbers: the standings, Austin and what the bookmaker keeps

The same weekend in MotoGP, where Márquez and Martín are 10 points apart: MotoGP, the Malaysian Grand Prix in numbers: Márquez and Martín 10 points apart, and what the bookmaker keeps